Fantasy Overlord is a computer program that attempts to identify beneficial transfers using past statistics.
The maths behind the model comes from the paper titled: Competing with Humans at Fantasy Football: Team Formation in Large Partially-Observable Domains. The papers authors do not run Fantasy Overlord.
To summarise, points projection is done using this seasons data only. It takes past fixtures and looks at teams attack fantasy points against their opponents defence fantasy points, and midfield fantasy points against midfield fantasy points. Teams that have previously scored well against teams with high fantasy points in opposing positions will be forecasted to do well against teams with lower points in the future. Likewise, teams that have performed poorly against teams with lower points will not be rated favourably against teams with higher points. Each player has their points projected separately.
When it comes to recommended players and transfer suggestions, it depends on how many future gameweeks you take into account. It averages the forecast for each player across the number of selected gameweeks before returning the optimal result.
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